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邹 恒 甫 (Zou Heng-fu)
首批人文社会科学长江学者讲座教授
国家自然科学基金委杰出青年基金获得者(1998, 2002)
国家教育部社会科学跨世纪人才
北京大学经济学一级教授
北京大学董辅礽经济学讲座教授
世界银行研究部研究员
武汉大学高级研究中心主任
（身在美国的邹老师将经常光临与大家交流；其学生叶楚华协助管理博客.
email:ychh0905@126.com。）
2008-12-04 15:48:23
　　做一个有尊严的知识人 (2008-11-28 17:11:00)
　　标签：余英时
知识人的尊严
分类：访谈辑录
　　做一个有尊严的知识人
　　——余英时先生采访录节选
　　全文见《时代周报》（创刊号，2008-11-18）
　　http://club2.cat898.com/new /di .a ?boardid=1&am id=2569693
　　时代周报：为什么你现在把“知识分子”一词都改用“知识人”？
　　余英时：“知识人”这个名词是我现在提倡的，第一次是2002年上海人民出版社《士与中国文化》第二版，我在序里提出这个问题。以后我就尽可能用“知识人”，而不用“知识分子”。原来我也用“知识分子”，那是随俗，因为语言应该随俗。但我现在觉得这是一个问题，过去“分子”用得太可怕了，分子是右派分子、坏分子，什么都在里头。“知识分子”已经用了几十年，从前是一个中性的词，后来就变质了。所以我不想再用。我记得可能是看了已经去世的语言学家陈原谈“分子”的文章，受到他的影响。西方用“intellectual”，就是知识人，日本人也用“知识人”。我给日本学界写过一篇文章，用的是“知识人”这个名词。讲知识人等于中国人讲读书人一样，讲政治人、经济人、文化人都可以，为什么不能用知识人呢？我的意思是人的地位要受到尊重，我要恢复人的尊严，因为语言是影响很大的东西，语言一定限制你的思想，用暴力语言，就是鼓动暴力。
　　时代周报：人的地位要受到尊重的观念，在中国历史上有没有源流可以追溯？
　　余英时：中国对人权是一样尊重的，在王莽时代有诏令，不能***人作奴隶，这比西方还进步，西方整个古代以至早期基督教都视奴隶为当然。人都有权益，人都有尊严，这在中国早就有了。中国的观念跟西方的价值可以结合起来的。
　　从前中国还有士大夫阶层来控制，政权也是开放的，开放到一定程度就是科举，要做官必须先考试，这个考试是比较公平的。从汉武帝开始，中央设有太学，地方上也推举人才再送上去。这是中国很早就有的好事情，不要以为是小事情，这是不容易的。西方在中古时候一个是武士阶级，一个是有钱的商人可以有特权，然后是世袭的贵族。这些在中国很早就消灭掉了，世袭制度基本上在春秋战国以后就不再实行了。唯一世袭的就是皇帝，这个没有人碰它。中国的政权很早便开放到“四民之首”的“士”（即知识人）是一个重要的文化成就，但这一开放并没有形成“民主”。辛亥革命以后中国知识人便自觉地努力，想作进一步的开放。追求民主，便是承认每一个人都有“人的尊严”。儒家早已有“人皆可以为尧舜”的观念，这一思路在现代与追求民主、自由、人权的大潮流汇合了起来。
　　时代周报：在今天这个时代里，如何做一个有尊严的知识人？
　　余英时：我想你们年轻人自己要努力，要自己把自己当人，不要盲目服从上面的权威。我认为每个人要争取自己基本的人权，不要随便被人剥夺了。如果人家给你“恩赐”，给你点好东西，你就感激涕零，这就不太好了。人就应该量才适性，自己有多少本事，在什么环境，尽量做自己该做的事。但是人不能光为自己着想，我们念中国书，受中国文化影响，不能只管我一家，其他就不管。因为小时候受影响，有社会责任感，但是责任感也不能无限膨胀，膨胀到连家都不顾了。起码的责任是对家里人有承担，这以后才有余力为公家做事，这是很简单的人生道理，只要能做到这一点，中国才能够慢慢走上现代社会，只能求一点一点地变。
　　我从来不把任何个人当神一样看得不得了。古人今人中好多人我都很欣赏，很尊敬，但我不觉得我要崇拜某一个人，想变成某一个人。我怎么可能变成爱因斯坦呢？爱因斯坦是一个个体的生命，我也是一个个体的生命，为什么要做他呢？就算有一个人是物理天才，也不一定能成得了。每个人都要成就自己，完成自己。我没有崇拜某一个圣人，我不崇拜孔子、孟子、朱熹，只是觉得在中国精神史上，这些人丰富了中国人的精神生活，从内心欣赏他们，尊敬他们。
　　现在想到的是，在这个时代我能做什么，那就是做自己。我没有英雄崇拜主义，也不会自愧不如，因为我天生就只有这么多本钱，只有这么多才力。这不是我能决定的，这是遗传决定的，还跟我的环境有关系。如果小时候没有八九年在乡下，我对传统的社会与文化便不可能有亲切的认识。但我没有机会上现代小学、中学，便注定不能成为数学家或物理学家了。我只有一点对中国文史的底子，就只能做我自己。我并不是傲慢或者自负，人只能知道自己有多少本钱，就做多大的生意。不要看别人是大富翁，我也要去做大生意，那就画虎不成反类犬。总而言之，尽力完成自我，同时也知道尊重别人，这是所谓“博学知服”，即做一个有尊严的知识人的最好办法。
　　□ 原载时代周报
2008-12-04 08:30:42
　　 方术师要大家都快点买美国股票
　　When new clients come to me, I ask them a few questio about risk. One is "What would you do if the value of your stocks fell by 50%?"
　　The vast majority a wer that they would buy more stocks. So now that the market has lost about 40% of its value, why are some of these same clients clamoring to sell?
　　Risk tolerance e and flows. From 2003 to 2007, U.S. stock prices nearly doubled and international shares nearly tripled.
　　During such good years, you tend to believe that you have a high tolerance for risk. At times like these, your willingne to take chances dro sharply.
　　Such mood swings can lead you to jump in and out of the market and chase good performance, with devastating results.
　　According to a 2007 study of investor retur from 1991 to 2004 published in the Journal of Banking &am Finance, the average investor pays a 1.5-percentage-point a ual penalty for that kind of behavior.
　　My advice is to never rely on a risk questio aire to tell you how much you should have in the market.
　　I ask about risk tolerance only to make the point that hypothetically losing half of your portfolio doe 't i ire the same fear that actually losing it will.
　　Your investment strategy should i tead be based on your goals, your time horizon and what you've saved so far. Succe will come from sticking to your plan.
　　But as you're learning now, buying stocks is emotional. Your investments represent security and freedom. And as you watch your balances decline, you see your dreams fade too. Hence the nervous calls.
　　What I'm saying is that while I can't make any promises, I wouldn't bet agai t capitalism over the long run. Chances are, you'll look back and see that this was a buying o ortunity.
　　In times like these, you should push yourself to take more risk than feels comfortable. And in good times, go out on a limb le than you're inclined to.
　　I'm feeling shock too. But I've bought more stock-index funds. It's scary, but it's also likely the right thing to do.
　　The Mole is a certified financial pla er and certified public accountant who - in the interest of fairne - thinks you should know what goes on behind the scenes in financial pla ing. Want to make contact? E-mail themole@moneymail.com
2008-12-03 06:54:31
　　2008年中国经济学最亲爱的称呼：
　　张维迎喊我们敬爱的王益老师
　　编者按：事实证明，王益不愧是张维迎之类可亲可敬的老师和朋友。但愿张维迎盘踞的北大光华少培养一些王益之徒。
　　张维迎语带哽咽致辞—“我们敬爱的王益老师”在北大光华
　　2007年06月25日08:18 　 《光华校友通讯》　 　
　　对于王益老师的身份，我们真的很难表述。金融家？音乐家？历史学人？还是“王益老师”这个光华人对他的称谓更为亲切。
　　对于王益老师的气质，我们真的很难分辨。诗人的率真和激情；历史学人的深邃和内敛；金融家的果断和严谨；我们更愿意把他视作有哲学思辨、历史钩沉和文学冲动的一个可亲可敬的老师和朋友。
　　不是吗？他在光华受欢迎的程度简直可以用“夸张”二字来表达。没亲眼见过以前他给光华学生上课后的反响，倒是亲身刚刚体验了6月10日中国交响乐团携他作曲填词的大型交响合唱《神州颂——献给正在复兴中的伟大祖国》来北大演出时台前幕后给北大和光华带来的那阵旋风。音乐会开幕前的光华招待会上，光华学生主持人用“我们敬爱的王益老师”引出他的闪亮登场；演出开始前，光华院长张维迎教授出场致辞，一向词锋甚健的他为本场音乐会作开场白时，竟语带哽咽；演出返场时，全场老少观众全体起立高唱《神州颂》结尾曲“飞吧，中国”时的群情激昂；演出结束后，前几排几位光华校友中他的女粉丝，异口同声地尖叫着“王益、王益、王益”，那势头绝不输于当下“快乐男声”、“好男儿”、新版红楼“宝哥哥”的海选现场。
　　当记者给他看带来的几张《神州颂》演出照片时，他兴奋地说：“那天北大演出的气氛太感人了。感谢北大，感谢光华，感谢维迎老师、李建光学弟、亚非老师和所有为这场演出奉献的朋友们。还要感谢热情的观众，特别是前几排那些女观众。当时，我陪领导在台上，本想着看看都谁在喊，但一种莫名的羞涩让我不敢向观众席发出叫声的地方张望，甚至连挥挥手向她（他）们表示感谢的动作都忘了，真是对不起！”
　　于是，在《神州颂》在北大完美谢幕后的次日下班之后，记者乘胜追“星”，直上国家开发银行总行16楼，在他的办公室里听王益老师谈他的北大情缘和音乐“意外”。
　　北大梦：从历史系学子到金融学兼职教授
　　“上北大是我从小的一个梦想”，王益校友说。他1978年入读北京大学历史系，6年半时间分别获得了学士、硕士学位，之后留校做助教。上世纪末，时为中国证监会副主席的他应厉以宁老师邀请，担任光华兼职教授。又后来，他又协助张维迎老师创办光华EMBA。他还是光华应用经济系的博士生导师。
　　不到30年间，他从一位云南边陲县城的有志青年，成长为一位银行家，他的成长、他的命运，与北大接下了不解情缘。
　　1956年4月12日，王益出生于位于滇西龙陵这个边陲小县城。父亲是白族，母亲是汉族。龙陵位于怒江、龙江川岗峦迭起,山高谷深，地势险要，滇缅公路穿境而过，自古以来就是我国西南边陲通往东南亚、南亚的关隘要塞。龙陵在中国的抗日战争史上可是赫赫有名。在著名的松山战役中，中国军民万众一心，全歼日寇3000多人，解开了滇西战略反攻的序幕。
　　不知道出生地人民的抗日精神，对王益老师在21世纪初创作《神州颂》是否大有裨益？总之，他用词曲渲染了自己对祖国的满腔热爱、对中华腾飞的欣喜。他用真挚的情感谱出激昂的旋律，用澎湃的歌词点燃了所有的中国人！
　　谈起少年时代，王益老师坦诚地说：“我们年轻的时候，考取北大是许多人的共同梦想。但是，念小学五年级时，文化革命就开始了，文革中复校闹革命时又念了两年初中。那时年轻学生的出路通常是下乡、当兵、去工厂。我15岁那年，被招工到昆明钢铁公司，后来又到了一个机械厂，做过轧钢、铸造、电工等三四个工种。劳动之余并没有停止大学梦想的追求，还在自学一点东西，像数理化、中文、英语。希望也许有一天还能去大学。”而在他当电工的时候，同一个车间有一位师傅是成都电讯工程学院毕业的大学生，非常关心这位爱读书的工友，经常鼓励和帮助他，增强了他的自信。
　　当1977年恢复高考的消息传到云南时，王益已有7年工作经验。大学梦鲜活地呈现在眼前，仿佛伸手就可以触摸到。他参加了文科类高考，在第一志愿里郑重地填下了心中的圣地“北京大学”四个字，但名落孙山。初尝失败，但他没有气馁，半年后参加1978年的高考，终于如愿以偿，被他的第一志愿北京大学历史学系录取。为什么选择学习历史？王益有他朴素的考虑。“我读的小说中，像《三国演义》、《水浒传》、《红楼梦》啊，都是讲历史的。在那个年代很多人都很愿意学历史。谈到念大学，王益很感慨，他提到了***。他说：“***是我们的恩人。没有他，我们不可能念大学。”
　　也许是折腾了两次才跨进了北大的门，机会着实难得，所以，王益到北大历史系后，一口气读了六年半，也获得了两个学位——学士和硕士，最终因成绩优异，提前半年硕士毕业。当时北大历史系的师资阵容也很强大，一批从文革中磨难中过来的老教授，重新站在了北大的讲堂上，为这些如饥似渴的学生倾心传授着毕生所学。说起他的老师，王益校友的脸上露出了幸福的表情。他如数家珍般地报出了一连串老师的名字。“我本科学习中国史，硕士学的是现代史。当时我们的系主任是邓广明教授，还有周宜良、宿白、陈庆华、张芝联、田余庆、王永兴、许大林、罗荣渠、张继谦、郝斌、马克尧、张传壐、何方川、张柱洪、王晓秋、王春梅等老师。”
　　王益校友是个饮水思源的人。这次《神州颂》开演时，他毕恭毕敬陪着一位白发老者进来，开始我们还以为会不会是他父亲，采访中才得知那是他的硕士生导师荣天琳教授。王益校友也是一个善于总结的人。他在6月2日光华校友基金成立现场，把光华校友对于校友基金的热情响应归结为中国士大夫精神的一种新时代延续。他精辟地概括他的北大收获——“北大的学习，两个东西最重要：世界观的形成和思维方法的训练。”
　　听他诠释北大的传统，是一种享受。“有着优良传统的北大，她那么一种内在的梦想对学生的影响很大。鲁迅先生说过，北大是常为新的，改进的运动的先锋。从蔡元培先生开始，北大就有着鲜明的传统，即对国家的忠诚和科学、民主的理念。这就是价值观，也是对国家、民族、社会的一种忠诚和责任。这些忠诚和责任在中国一些最好的大学里面都能看得见，会影响到学生的一生。
　　做为北大人，使你觉得你应该终身为这个国家、这个民族服务，应该忠诚于这个国家、这个民族，你应该去做你能做的事情。在大四那年，我加入了中国***。北大对我价值观的培养，包括对中华民族生存和发展的思考，都促使我在政治上做出这种选择。”谈到在北大的第二个受益，他认为是“在学历史的过程中，一方面让人学会从思辩的，也就是哲学角度去分析问题，同时又训练了怎样从事实，也就是历史变迁的角度去分析问题。这样也就学会了把横向思维和纵向思维相结合。
　　1998年，毕业了14年的王益再次回到了北大，应邀担任光华管理学院兼职教授。后来还担任首届EMBA班的班主任。“厉老师和维迎老师都是富有创新精神的人，能在他们领导下为北大做一点事，是很荣幸的。那个时候，EMBA办公室人很少，我们可真是在做班主任工作啊！”回忆往事，王益校友还有些自豪。是啊，连光华EMBA的创办，都浸润着他的心血和才智，他怎能不抚今追昔，思绪万千呢？
　　“维迎他们创建EMBA项目，是想为国家培养出一些企业管理的高端人才。中国以前的经济学和管理学教育很陈旧，搞市场经济需要很多新的知识，但学生在大学时并没有学过这些知识。另外，即使学过，知识的生命周期也越来越短，新的知识不断出现，需要补课，需要再培训。特别是经过文革，我们的知识有很大的断层，开设EMBA班对中国的经济发展，对培养现代企业家是很重要的。光华在这方面起了先锋作用。当时遇到的问题是，没有教育部批文，全靠自己改革，就像在农村改革一样，一开始是没有多少人认可的。并且由于一万美金的学费在当时听起来很贵，大家觉得不可思议，所以报名的积极性不高。于是学院决定进行市场培育、组织，当时有两个班，金融班和诺基亚班，金融班的40多人大都是王益组织进来的。最后，光华EMBA项目不光做起来了，而且做得风生水起，三年后其他学校都跟着学，EMBA的知名度和影响力就越来越大了。无论是在EMBA的创办上，还是在其他开拓性的事业中，光华的领导和老师如厉老师、维迎院长、武长歧副院长等都是很有干劲的，充满着理想和激情。光华有很多优秀的老师，我很敬佩他们！”王益校友再次做了总结陈述。
　　可以说，王益校友的北大梦早已实现，而他与北大的30年不了情还在精彩上演中!
2008-12-03 06:49:58
　　2008年中国经济学最大进展：
　　张维迎偷窃华生价格双轨/双鬼/双规制被华生发现了。
　　华生
：张维迎
为什么要盗劫价格双轨制
　　(作者华生系北京
师范大学珠海分校校长，高梁系国家发改委经济
体制与管理
研究所国有资产研究中心主任，张少杰系中国
经济体制改革研究会研究员)
　　21世纪经济报道
　　1984年9月初，由《经济日报》等媒体组织的“全国中青年经济科学工作者学术讨论会”(即莫干山会议)上，来自全国的青年学者为即将全面展开的城市经济体制改革提出了诸多有价值的建议，“价格双轨制改革思路”就是会议的突出成果之一。鉴于北大张维迎教授多次公开声称他是在莫干山会上提出双轨制思路的唯一发明者，我们作为会议的参加者(高梁也是会议筹备组的成员)，认为有必要出面，说清楚历史事实。
　　双轨制发明权之争的由来
　　本来，双轨乃至多轨多重价格，是发端于改革开放之初渐进式推进，价格放调结合的自然产物。莫干山会议不过是提出了要因势利导，把这个有意无意的做法，变成自觉的战略，来实现中国经济的转轨。
　　当时的记载和报道是，莫干山会上在价格改革问题上分为三派：调派以田源为代表；放派以张维迎为代表；华生、何家成、蒋跃、高梁、张少杰等人则提出了第三种主张——放调结合的双轨制思路，得到了会议的赞同，向时任国务委员张劲夫同志汇报，并最终为中央所采纳。
　　不过，放调结合、双轨推进的战略从一开始推行，就遭到了相当多的责疑和批评，以致随着改革深入和矛盾累积，在1980年代末甚至声名狼藉，我们几个提出双轨制的人也自然成为大家集中批评的靶子。因此，打开1980年代的全部文献乃至传媒资料，只有围绕双轨制的论战，没有任何人出来争什么发明权。
　　1990年代始双轨制得到更全面的积极评价之后，华生倒是在回忆文章中多次指出，双轨制其实是莫干山会议集体智慧的结晶，而他和相关当事人只是因为历史的偶然和机遇，才成为符号化的代表。至于今天双轨制发明权的所谓争论，正如莫干山会议主报告执笔人徐景安所指出的，是张维迎在1990年代后挑起来的。
　　在1990年代出版的张维迎自己著作的作者简介中，首次自称是“国内最早提出并系统论证双轨制价格改革思路的学者”，但由于他并没有提供进一步的细节，人们也无从知晓他在哪里提出和论述的。因此，尽管1980年代过来的人看到后都感到很奇怪，但我们谁都没有去责疑和驳斥。直到2006年张维迎在其出版的《价格、市场与企业
家》一书中，首次提出，他在1984年4月，就写成了《以价格为中心带动整个经济体制改革》一文，并刊登在国务院技术
研究中心出的《专家建议》上。在该文中他第一次系统提出了双轨制价格改革思路。他说在莫干山会议上“从一开始就形成‘调’、‘放’两派，田源是调派的代表，我是放派的代表。最终，我的观点说服了大多数人，会议组织者以政府领导人‘容易听进去’的方式将我的观点作了一些修正，向国务院提交了这次会议上提出的价格改革新思路，受到国务院领导的重视，‘双轨制’由此成为中国价格改革的官方政策
　　由于张维迎的说法与1980年代留下的文献记载及莫干山会议与会者的回忆都完全不同，因而引起所谓关于双轨制发明权的争论。
　　作为这个历史的亲历者和当事人，我们一直觉得，这种事后对历史的修改十分令人遗憾,但双轨制已经载入历史，争夺个人的发明权没有什么意思，所以这些年来我们一直回避对张维迎的说法作出正面的评论
　　但是，最近在《经济观察报》纪念改革30年的访谈中，张维迎进一步明确说，在莫干山会上“我还讲了如何通过双轨制逐步放开价格的思路，我的发言引起了轩然大波，因为之前没有人从放开市场的角度考虑价格改革问题”，说他“基本上是单***匹马轮番应战”，“我现在确实想不出还有谁是放派了”。“随着讨论的进行，有越来越多的人被我说服”，“掌声也越来越多”，称自己是莫干山会上把市场价格作为改革目标并提出双轨制的惟一贡献者。这样，当然就有人包括媒体向我们尖锐地提问，张维迎的说法与你们的
　　回忆完全对立，不可能同时为真。如果张维迎所言属实，那么过去所说我们几个在莫干山会议上提出双轨制的人，就是在撒谎和伪造历史。因此，尽管在这种非黑即白的情况下，说清楚真相总会令有人难堪，但作为历史的当事人已经再没有什么回避的余地。我们也只好在改革开放三十年之际，澄清事实真相，这既是对历史和大众知情权的尊重，也有助于学术研究风气的净化和人们对改革真实历程的认识。
　　会议亲历者眼中的历史
　　其实，关于莫干山会议上的情况，会议一结束代表们就已经带到了全国各地。1980年代的媒体很少，但他们对年轻的改革者能够影响国家决策的大事当然也不会忽略。发起组织莫干山会议的媒体之一《中国青年》杂志，于会后曾就双轨制被中央采纳发表过一篇对华生的专访，并在1985年第4期刊发。文章详细描述了会上华生等人如何提出和向领导汇报放调结合的双轨制的情况，其中有这样的表述：“围绕价格改革，会上旗分三色，势成鼎立”。国内权威理论期刊《经济研究》也在会后立即约我们5人写作了《论具有中国特色的价格改革道路》一文，刊登于1985年第2期。
　　1990年代后，大家关于莫干山会议价格改革的回忆基本大同小异，如徐景安的回忆文章，谈到会上有三派观点，张维迎是放派，与双轨制并无关系(见《领导者》杂志2008年2月刊)。具有代表性的还有会议参加者，著名的价格研究专家、现任北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院院长李晓西教授的文章。他当时是莫干山会议上价格组讨论的活跃人物，并于1987年发表过《从双轨制到市场化》的论文，对双轨制的利弊进行了分析并提出了建议，代表了当时社会上很有影响的意见。1999年，当时他还在国务院研究室担任宏观经济研究司司长，在点评
自己这篇1980年代的论文时，对当年双轨制的产生作了一个完整的描述：“‘价格双轨制’是1984年全国第一次中青年经济工作者理论研讨会即‘莫干山会议’提出来的。在此之前，价格管理中也有过类似规定，但形成很大影响并被推崇为经济改革的主要思路，则是自这次会议始。在‘莫干山会议’上，有三种价格改革方式的争论：一种主张价格以调为主，这是以国务院价格研究中心田源同志为代表；一种主张价格以放为主，这是以张维迎同志为代表；还有一种主张搞价格双轨制，这是以中国社会科学院华生、何家成同志为代表。回过头来看，以调为主思路趋于保守，……价格以放为主，……可能欲速不达，反导致改革失败。多数人认同价格双轨制的观点。……这种思路，后来也得到中央有关领导同志首肯。因此，价格双轨制成为价格改革的一项重大政策出台了。”(见《二十年观察与思考：李晓西论文集》，1999年)。
　　莫干山会议上的三派观点确实在主报告中被去掉一条，归纳为两种思路，但是，被归纳和去掉的恰恰不是别人而是张维迎的观点。这是因为会议的大多数人和组织领导者认为，放出一个自由市场价格的观点过于激进，并不可行，而调的观点领导已经知道，因此，在会议向国务委员张劲夫同志汇报时，决定只派华生去汇报双轨制思路，同时会议提交的两个价格改革建议分别指派田源、华生起草，作为附件，并由徐景安归纳这两个建议写成《价格改革的两种思路》，作为主报告内容之一。而张劲夫同志和国务院领导很快批示肯定了放调结合的思路。对此，莫干山会议的一个重要参加和组织者，也是张维迎在莫干山会议后的工作单位即中国经济体制改革研究所的所长陈一咨有很清楚的说明。
　　他回忆当年曾向国务院领导当面汇报会议情况，介绍“莫干山会议上关于价格改革的争论最激烈。第一种意见比较激进，认为价格必须全面放开，不放开不能形成市场机制，原则上对，但具体操作性不大，提出这种意见的青年学者了解
　　西方经济学，但对中国实际情况了解不够；第二种意见过于稳健，认为当前只能做价格调整
，调的比价比较合理后才能进行价格改革，问题在于主观的价格调整永远不可能调得‘合理’，调出一个价格机制来；第三种意见被会上多数人接受，以社科院研究生院的华生、张少杰、高梁为代表，认为能放开的价格必须逐步放开，以形成市场机制，放不开的价格则进行行政指令性调整，叫作放调结合，先放后调。这种办法可以逐步扩大市场份额，使指令性计划的原材料和产品比重逐步缩小，最后达到大部分产品价格由市场决定。问题在于可能出在有些人会利用两种价差搞投机，但不可能有完美方案，只要利大弊小就可以”(见《前哨月刊》2006年5月)。所以，对莫干山会上的情况，对于这个会议所有的参加者来说，都是清清楚楚的。
　　如徐景安表示，他据实回忆了会上三派不同观点的争论，张维迎见文后给他这位体改所的老领导做工作，但无论张维迎如何“启发”他，他实在回忆不出莫干山会上张维迎和放调结合、双轨制有什么关系，无法为张维迎做证。张维迎又以知识产权为由，坚决反对徐景安公开发表他们两个人就此进行的对话，因此他是不得已才去写文章澄清张维迎的说法和《经济观察报》的相关报道。
　　奇怪的是，张维迎当时在会上和整个1980年代，从未对大家公认的说法表示异议，而到了20多年后要彻底翻当年莫干山会议的案，对我们所有这些参会者来说，听到后不免瞠目结舌。莫干山价格讨论的一个主要代表田源，在一次众人聚会上听说，张维迎自称提出了双轨制，并说服了莫干山会议上的大多数人，田源当众发问“不可能吧？他真的这么说了？不会吧？”听到别人肯定的答复后，田源不无讽刺地反问“他参加了莫干山会了吗？”
　　移花接木的原由
　　张维迎自称提出了双轨制，绝非空穴来风。据张维迎自己介绍，他在一直没搬家的茅于轼老师
家中，“庆幸”地找到他在莫干山会前那份《专家建议》的油印稿原件。其中他提到“价格体系改革的具体办法，可以参照农副产品价格改革的办法，实行双轨制价格，旧价格用旧办法管理，新办法用新办法管理，最后建立全新的替代价格制度”。张维迎前不久刚把这篇文章扫描给了徐景安，说服徐承认他才是双轨制的最早提出者。
　　既然现在张维迎说他早在莫干山会以前就写文章，全面论述双轨制，并带着文章上山，他为什么在莫干山会上不提双轨制？或者别人提出后拿出自己的文章当众宣示，让与会者包括会后他加盟的体改所的众多同事和领导们当场信服，要等到20多年后的今天，才拿着一个几乎没有人见过和听说过的扫描文件去各处费力地说服别人呢？
　　首先，这是因为莫干山会议提出的价格改革双轨制推进战略与张维迎文中提到的双轨制价格并不是一个内容。会上进行的是放和调的争论，而张维迎是高调的市场化放派，坚决反对调。
　　本来张维迎的长文还提到一次调，说可以“或先调后放”，但这正是莫干山会上调派的思路。这样，他到莫干山会上遇到了调派以后，就完全抛弃了自己或可以先调的含糊想法，变成了彻底的放派，与调派展开了激烈的争论。在这种情况下出现的第三种思路，是综合放调两方面的意见，把放、调各作为一轨，综合起来叫放调结合的双轨制。
　　当时讲双轨制主要是从外放内调、两条腿走路，双轨推进这个动态意义上说的，并不是强调去搞计划内外两个价格，那样与会者和领导根本都不会接受。实际上，很多与会者印象最深的是，当时华生比划着手势去说服听众和领导的一个有力论据，不是鼓吹去搞双轨制价格，而是相反，说明放权让利已经不可避免出现了多重价格，这时，因势利导先放开计划外价格，国家参与组织生产资料市场，可以刺激供给，从而使市价下落，同时再内调计划价向上，使计
　　划内外价格靠拢和合并。正是这个因势利导和使多价归一的双轨反向推进主张，最终打动了相关决策人。
　　双轨制价格只是放调结合的战略在实行后形成的一个过渡形态，在事后才成为一个大众流行用语。当时在莫干山会议的主报告和领导批示中说的都是放调结合，并没有提及双轨制。当年国务委员张劲夫同志听汇报首次听华生提到这个词时特别问：“双轨制怎么讲？”华生回答：“就是价格先放后调”，张劲夫同志随即表示了对一物多价和市场投机的疑问，华生解释放调结合的双轨推进正是为了解决这个问题，即用“平价稳大局，市价改结构，造成短线市价平稳下浮，同时上调牌价向上，逐步使二者靠近，多价归一”(见《中国青年》杂志1985年第4期19页)。
　　张维迎当时全力推崇自由价格和放，既反对调派，也反对放调结合的双轨推进主张。由于他高调坚持市场价格的“放”这一轨，而他现在所说文章提到的双轨制价格与放调结合的两轨无关，当然就不可能在会上去把自己的放和放调结合的双轨制混为一谈。
　　其次，张维迎的文章说价差大的生产资料价格，可以分步放或先调后放，而当时价差大的就是生产资料，所以价格双轨制当年本来又被称为生产资料价格双轨制。这个领域恰恰是要先放而不能先调，以调为主的先调和放调结合的先放后调正是莫干山会议总结的价格改革两条思路的区别所在。
　　因此，如果仅以张维迎的文章为据，他又是在这两种思路之间摇摆的。张维迎现在说放就是双轨制，说明他至今也没明白双轨制的真正含义，也没有明白为什么他当年高调提出的市场价格目标模式和放派主张在莫干山上被多数人否定的原因。
　　张维迎放的思路在会上没有被采纳，会后他将自己关于价格改革的主要思想总结归纳在一篇题为“关于价格改革中以放为主的思路”的文章，发表于1985年第6期的《经济研究参考资料》，并被作为“放”派代表作选登于中国经济体制改革研究所出版的论文集中(《中国：发展与改革1984-1985》春秋出版社1987版)。这是能查到的张维迎在1980年代所唯一公开发表的关于价格改革的文章。在这篇文章中，张维迎通篇没有提到放调结合，甚至也完全回避提到这时已经变得很热的双轨制这个词，去掉了他现在出示的内部文章中唯一提到的双轨制三个字的一处，改为双轨价格，显示他有意区分自己与莫干山会议放调结合双轨制的界限。此后他虽然与莫干山会议的众多参加者同在体改所，但再也不与人谈这个话题，淡出了人们的视野。1980年代后期围绕双轨制战略的论战到了白热化的程度，张维迎从来没有参与论战，而是完全置之度外，甚至连自己所里组织写双轨制的调研讨论文章也不参加，没有为双轨制说过一句肯定的话。
　　因此，所谓张维迎带着双轨制文章上山引起了轰动，张维迎的观点说服了会议上的大多数人，1980年代他因双轨制而被人骂了所有骂人的话，都不能不是谎言。因为当时张维迎自己就没说他主张双轨制，会上大多数人根本不是同意而是否定了他的观点，所有骂人的话只会出现在今天的网络
世界，根本不会出现在只有少数官方媒体的1980年代。
　　事实已经很清楚。
　　张维迎“非常庆幸”地找出了一份自己当年内部文章的原件，用此双轨来冒充彼双轨，宣称自己是“最早提出并系统论证双轨制价格改革思路的学者”。走到这一步，张维迎的做法虽然牵强附会，但也不算无中生有。就如历史上苏格兰人帕特里克·马修远在达尔文之前就早已提出了进化论，但不幸的是，他是在一本名为《海军用木和森林栽培》书里提出来的，之后就没有去深入研究和推介。尽管如此，后来很多人包括达尔文本人，都承认他提的最早，同时也指出，他提的很简单，并不为人所知，对推动社会的认识未起作用。而张维迎的
　　内部文稿提到的还不是当年莫干山会上提出、并被中央采纳的放调结合双轨制思路，只是一个类似的双轨制价格概念，就去引导舆论认为，中国的放调结合的双轨制就是他提出来的。
　　就像徐景安所说，走到这一步，张维迎为了提高自己的学术地位，追求利益最大化，有点失去理性。因为要证明这一点，那就必须宣布：1980年代以来原有关于莫干山会议双轨制产生过程的有关报道、记载和回忆，都是编造和谎言；莫干山会议的参加者和组织领导者无端地把张维迎的观点当众移给别人；张维迎自己也眼见自己的成果当面被他人占有而在会上乃至整个1980年代都默然接受；如此等等。
　　但莫干山会议的亲历者都还健在，会议的核心组织者甚至都已进入国家领导人的行列，张维迎宣称自己在莫干山会议上“单***匹马”作战，以至最后成为获得大多数人点头鼓掌的唯一正确代表，这确实超出了我们所有人的想像。不过和历史上那些让人无法理解去铤而走险的学术造假者一样，在令莫干山会议的亲历者陷入巨大尴尬的同时，也让自己蒙羞。
　　应当指出，张维迎除了一定要抹去莫干山会议上的第三派之外，他现在对调派的批评，也是非常不公正的。张维迎在访谈中说，他与田源等人的分歧是价格的目标模式不同，别人是计划价格，因而用调，他主张市场价格模式，因而用放，把他与别人的争论变成改革与保守的分歧。其实当年的中青年改革者在改革的目标模式上并没有什么根本分歧，争论的关键在过渡方式上。***当时提出的目标就是要理顺物价，会上提出调和放都是寻找手段和途径。田源是主张先调，但并没有排斥以后条件成熟了放开。李剑阁在会上介绍周小川、楼继伟的小步快调思路，也是向供求平衡指导价过渡，所以大家的分歧的焦点还是在如何过渡。
　　实际上，中国价格改革的实践最终也证明，单纯调或放的一轨，都不能完成中国价格改革复杂、渐进的过渡，正是放、调结合的双轨并用，两条腿走路，才走出了中国价格改革的成功之路。双轨制概念后来有那么大的影响，就是因为人们发现，中国渐进改革中双重体制并存和转化期间，发展增量、调整和转化存量是一个普遍的成功之路，是正确处理发展、改革、稳定关系的具体体现。双轨制是概括这个增量渐进改革的很好概念。而这些早与莫干山会后就退出讨论的张维迎无关，并和张维迎后来继续主张的各种激进观点相矛盾。张维迎现在说，没有放就没有双轨制，因而放就等于双轨制。那么没有调能有双轨制吗？国家采纳的就是放调结合，怎么能缺了“调”这一轨呢？张维迎现在拼命贬低和排斥调这一轨的作用，除了抬高自己以外，还因为他在莫干山后就完全脱离了中国价格改革的研讨探索和实践努力，并不真懂什么是双轨制，以为中国价格改革就是靠一个“放”完成的。实际上，双轨制价格只是放调结合在一个阶段上难以避免的形态，双轨制价格的过渡形态在1980年代后期曾经遭遇了严重的挑战和社会的强烈反弹，是靠放调结合、以放促调的双向努力才使价格改革最终走过险滩，基本完成的。
　　应当指出，在经济体制改革中中国经济学家作为群体确实发挥了一定作用，但任何人都不应该随意修改历史，夸大个人的作用。同时客观地说，中国经济学家自己原创
性的东西有限，更多的是学习和借鉴别人的东西。在借鉴中如果结合自己的特点，有所发展，就是创新了。“从不重复别人的观点”，实际上恐怕谁也做不到。张维迎这么多年来的各种观点，从为钱正名，市场价格与放开，企业家的功能，资本雇用劳动的私有化逻辑等等，在西方在中国都不好说是首创吧。
　　实际上，经济学家应当明白，真正推动社会转型和历史前进的是政府行为和民众互动的实践。在纪念改革开放三十周年之际，经济学家的主要任务是要能真正科学地总结过去三十年的经验教训，为中国人今后三十年更伟大、更艰巨的征程，多少提供一些专业的预见性和透视力。经济学家即使要留一些个人的痕迹，这才是可以真正无限施展的领域。
　　徐景安在文章最后对张维迎所说的话应该代表了莫干山会议亲历者的心声，“做人和做学问，第一还是做人，共勉之”。
　　相关阅读:
　　张维迎放言：“批评我的人，道德还不到我和王益的脚后跟。”
(邹恒甫
, 2008-7-22)
　　股权分置改革是否成功－－与华生教授对话改革
, 2008-7-31)
　　金岩石：风风雨雨股改路，是是非非大小非
(知钱俱乐部
, 2008-8-18)
　　莫干山会议亲历者：双轨制发明权被张维迎盗窃
(邹恒甫
, 2008-10-15)
　　恒甫学社社论：张维迎欺世盗名的最大一招也被徐景安和华生等轻轻地消灭了
(邹恒甫
, 2008-10-16)
　　张维迎的简历造假（附证据08年10月最新版）
(邹恒甫
, 2008-10-16)
　　ZT令人惊奇的是，张维迎居然还在提到自己在西大读书时候想出了有了双轨制的想法，
(邹恒甫
, 2008-10-21)
　　搜狐博客
踏月留伤
　　张维迎的简历造假（附证据08年10月最新版）
　　踏月留伤按：卑鄙是卑鄙者的通行证，无耻是无耻者的工作卡。我在去年10月写完张维迎简历造假系列文章之后，对于张维迎这位“著名”经济学家的无耻造假行为感到震惊。今年10月华生等人还原莫干山会议历史的文章揭露了张维迎近年来歪曲历史、将别人的贡献占为己的卑劣行为，再次让我感到有责任把张维迎的造假行为进行重新梳理并公诸于世，让大家看看一个满口“仁义道德”的人竟堕落至此。也欢迎大家提供关于张维迎造假的新资料。
　　一：获得牛津大学硕士学位时间造假
　　光华官方网站上的张维迎的中文简介http://www.gsm.pku.edu.cn/wuan1/zhangwy.html
，从中可以看到“1990年9月入牛津大学，读书，1992年获经济学硕士学位(M. Phil.)， 1994年获博士学位(D. Phil.)”（见附件一）。这个简历是张维迎的没有当上光华正院长以前的。他当上光华正院长后的中文简历是http://www.gsm.pku.edu.cn/viewfaculty.a ?tid=15
。其中教育背景部分已经把“1992年获经济学硕士学位(M. Phil.)， 1994年获博士学位(D. Phil.)”部分变成“1990.09-1994.08 ，牛津大学读经济学硕士、博士学位”。他当上光华正院长后的英文简历是http://www.gsm.pku.edu.cn/en/faculty_detail.a ?tid=15#General
，其中仍然是“He received his M. Phil. in economics in 1992 ”（见附件二）。
　　牛津大学学位授予办公室主任Dr. David Brown 提供的证明文件（见附件一）显示张维迎是在1994年7月30日获得硕士学位。
　　因此，张维迎简历中“1992年获经济学硕士学位(M. Phil.)”存在造假。
　　二：获奖信息造假
　　光华官方网站上的张维迎的简历中提到他在牛津大学时期获得的一个奖：“硕士论文曾获1992年牛津大学经济学研究生最佳论文奖 (George We Medley Prize for the best thesis)。”对于该奖，在张维迎回国早期的几篇论文中的唯一一篇带有详细个人简介的论文《从现代企业理论看国有企业改革》（价格与市场,1995,(2)）的作者小传中有如下文字：“在牛津大学读书期间，1992年因对企业理论研究的贡献，获牛津大学经济学研究生最佳论文奖 （George We Medley Prize for the best thesis）该奖为牛津大学所设的唯一的经济学研究生论文奖，每年授一名）”（见附件四）
　　 通过Google搜索发现芝加哥大学的经济学家Robert Shimer在其个人简历中（http://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/shimer.pdf
）也出现了“1992 : George We Medley Prize for best M.Phil. thesis and George We Medley Prize for best written examination, Oxford University.” Shimer 教授是耶鲁大学的学士，牛津大学的硕士，MIT的博士，现在是芝加哥大学教授，经济学顶级刊物Journal of Political Economy的主编之一。
　　根据张维迎论文的作者简介中描述的“每年授一名”。可以推断张维迎和Robert Shime教授肯定有一个人说了假话。因为张维迎自称“每年授一名“的奖不可能同时授给两个人。
　　本人致信Shimer教授，询问他是否得到1992年George We Medley Prize for best M.Phil. thesis，Shimer教授回信表示他可以确认他自己获得了1992年的George We Medley Prize for best M.Phil. thesis 和 George We Medley Prize for best written examination 两个奖。对于张维迎是否同时也获得了1992年的George We Medley Prize for best M.Phil. thesis，Shimer教授表示由于年代久远，他已经记不清楚（见附件五）。
　　因此，张维迎在获奖信息上造假：要么他和Shimer教授同时获奖，该奖就不是“每年授一名“；要么他根本没有得奖。
　　三：编造不存在的书作为自己的著作：
　　在国内出版的张维迎的博士论文英文版（收入《中国留美经济学会博士论文集》，1995，）的作者简介中（见附录六），张维迎提到自己出版了一本著作《中国经济转轨》（与易纲、迟福林合编，英国牛津大学出版社，1994）。牛津大学出版社书目查询的地址：http://www.oup.co.uk/search/?view=bookSch
上进行检索，未发现这本书。用百度和Google搜索此书，在国图和上图搜索此书，在易纲、迟福林的个人简介都没有发现这本书。
　　 因此，张维迎编造不存在的书作为自己的著作。
　　四：盗取他人的贡献
　　张维迎在90年代中期开始在自己的简历中鼓吹自己是双轨制价格理论首创者（见附件四），2007年9月，张维迎要求莫干山会议主报告执笔人徐景安先生证明自己是双轨制价格理论首创者。徐先生以事实驳斥了张维迎。张维迎以谈话的知识产权为由，拒绝徐景安先生将双方关于双轨制价格理论首创者争论的谈话公开。2007年11月，《经济观察报》记者马国川在徐景安先生访谈的编后加了一段文字，把张维迎吹捧成双轨制价格理论首创者以误导大众，徐先生写澄清文章，而该报不予发表。为还原历史，2008年3月，莫干山会议主报告执笔人徐景安先生撰文回忆了双轨制价格改革的由来，对张维迎的盗取别人贡献的行为进行了揭露（见http://xujingan.bokee.com/viewdiary.23734007.html
）。2008年9月，在《经济观察报》记者马国川对张维迎的专访中，张维迎更是以双轨制价格理论首创者自居，对于自己在莫干山会议上的表现大肆吹嘘，引起媒体和众多学者质疑（见http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20080927/17055351129.shtml
）。2008年10月，当年在莫干山会议上提出双轨制的华生、高粱和张少杰撰文对张维迎篡改历史、造假欺骗的无耻行为进行了深刻揭露（见http://finance.ifeng.com/news/history/jjsh/20081013/177413.shtml
　　总结：
　　张维迎教授的简历中不仅获得学位时间、获奖信息、著作存在严重的造假行为，甚至堕落到篡改历史，盗取别人的贡献。对于一位北京大学光华管理学院的院长，一位向企业宣传诚信的“著名“经济学家。一位教育学生“讲诚信”的教师，自己却存在这严重的造假行为，给青年学生带来了极坏的影响。他的这种做法已经严重违背了一位教师和科学工作者的职业道德，建议北京大学有关方面严肃查处，以净化学术空气。
　　附件一
　　附件二
　　附件三
　　附件四
　　附件五
　　Dear XXX:
　　I won both the thesis prize and the examination prize in 1992. One or both prizes may have been shared--I honestly do not recall. I am sorry I ca ot help more.
　　Sincerely,
　　Robert Shimer
　　附件六
2008-12-03 06:19:21
　　恒甫按：为什么卖猪肉的不全是哈佛研究生？
　　很多年来，中国小资本家都喜对恒甫说：我公司应聘的有好几个哈佛博士。
　　恒甫答曰：可有哈佛经济学博士到你小资本处应聘？
　　有无？无语？
　　再见吧，资本贱货！
　　搜狐博客
丹青异彩 日志 职业社会
　　2008-12-01 | 辣评：研究生卖猪肉是资本在骚包
　　http://huangsanmi.blog.sohu.com/105603793.html
　　当下的大学毕业生面临着就业艰难的困境，近日，广州一家猪肉连锁店就引来了1500多名应届硕士前来竞聘。据说，下周三前后，录用的30名研究生将上岗卖猪肉。(11月28日信息时报)
　　如果我说研究生工作难找，这等于是一句废话，但是，如果说特招研究生卖猪肉是资本在骚包，恐怕就是一剑封喉了。
　　很明显的事儿，一说，就俗了。因为大家伙儿谁都不是瞎子。研究生站在砧板前，究竟这学历和猪头，谁是刀俎谁为猪肉，还真的很难说？当然，结论是他们都不是刀俎，刀俎是花花绿绿的人民的币。人民的币即使染上猪血，那也是硬通货，刚刚地。这年头，缺德不要脸都行，就是不能缺钱。所以，即使是硕士(如果肯研究的话，会明白这两个字不是那么简单地，硕者，巨大也。大在德和能两个方面，因而就意味着社会责任和履责义务的重大。)研究生，也会被一分钱难倒。于是乎，磨刀霍霍就成了胡屠户和镇关西的同门中人了。
　　可惜的是，在今天，他们已然不会有一个叫做范进的会中举的女婿，来光耀门庭。他们自己将数十年与猪头无关的教育经历深深地书写在红中带白的猪头猪腿猪肝上，他们用自己的学生腔渲染这这个伟大时代案板上的丰乳肥臀，个中滋味，尤其是面对父母老师邻居友人，特别是那曾经青葱岁月中牵手的小女孩，到底是怎样一种百转千回，那就只有当事者知道了。至于会不会如镇关西一样，也能因为傍着鲁提辖的大名而在青史上留一笔，那也不能抱太多希望，因为研究生一般而言，都是血性欠缺些的，鲁提辖大概是没有机会去与半吊子(不管是五百个制钱还是二百五十个，都不是小数目，要是现在有，就不用卖猪肉了吧?)书生为难的。
　　猪肉有好几种吃法，卤肉是我最喜欢的一种，因为油性去掉了，不恶心了，反之，则如同胡屠户油腥腥的大手掌一样，看一看，就饱了。而且，卤肉就酒，能去辛辣，祛胃酸，知识分子多吃，就能治一治口甜舌甘心腻骨软的流行病。
　　但是，这研究生卖的肉，我该如何一边挑挑拣拣，一边听他满口之乎者也外加yes or no式地产品介绍呢？蓦然回首，谁躲在阴影里呵呵有声？谁又在袖着手在寒风中瑟缩？
2008-12-03 05:57:49
　　Oil eculation: It's back
　　There's more of it today than there ever was this summer. And this time around, it really is making oil more expe ive.
　　By Jon Birger
, senior writer
　　December 1, 2008: 9:22 AM ET
　　No more gas-price ikes
　　NEW YORK (Fortune) -- With oil now at $50 a barrel, you no longer hear Congre complaining about oil eculators. The irony is there's probably more real eculation going on today than there ever was back in June and July.
　　I'm talking about the type of eculation that involves hoarding oil today so it can be sold for more down the road. Today's eculators are actually buying oil. They're not merely fli ing futures contracts without taking delivery - which is what hedge funds and commodities index funds were doing when they were in the cro hairs of Congre this summer. As I've argued before
, investors who trade futures but never take delivery of actual oil can't have a material impact on oil prices because their trading affects neither su ly nor demand.
　　What's different now is the structure of the futures market, which is giving big investors an incentive to buy and hold huge sums of crude. Specifically, the November 2009 price of oil is co iderably higher ($12 a barrel higher, to be precise) than the ot price - a scenario futures traders call a "contango" market. (The o osite scenario - ot prices higher than futures prices - is known as "backwardation.")
　　"The steepening of the contango has opened up carry-trade arbitrage o ortunities that are slow to be closed due to co trained credit conditio ," Goldman Sachs wrote in a recent research report. Tra lation: this is a great time for investors to be hoarding oil.
　　Today's market is giving Goldman clients and other well-heeled investors an o ortunity to buy oil in the ot market for $50 a barrel, sell it forward in the futures market for $62, and then pocket the $12-a-barrel difference, le storage costs.
　　This type of oil investing was quite popular in 2005 and 2006 when, like today, the price of oil one year out was much higher than the ot price. Back then, contango trades were so popular that one of Morgan Stanley's top energy traders, Olav Refvik, leased so much oil storage that he earned the nickname "the King of New York Harbor."
　　There's no question the investing strategies pursued by Refvik and others were pushing up oil prices. By putting large sums of oil into storage, they reduced the su ly available to co umers. By 2007, however, the gap between ot prices and futures vanished, and so did the o ortunity to profit from that difference. And the amount of oil held in inventory began to fall.
　　Neverthele , Congre needed a scapegoat for rising oil prices and an easy target proved to be hedge funds and other investors da ling in oil futures. But these eudo- eculators were simply making a bet on the direction of price they weren't driving them. Their gai (or lo es) came out of the hides of the investors or airlines or oil companies on the other sides of their trades, not the oil-co uming public. Moreover, a lot of commodities hedge funds were actually making the wrong bets: According to Merrill Lynch, the average commodities hedge fund had a negative trailing 12-month return through June.
　　Unlike futures fli ers, contango traders really do impact oil prices, yet they're getting a free pa . According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, domestic oil inventories have risen 9% since oil prices peaked in early July. While some of that is attributable to the weak economy and slack energy demand, gasoline co umption declined only 5% over the same period and gasoline inventories have risen only 4%. (If you're wondering why contango traders would target crude oil but not gasoline, vaporization i ues make gasoline harder to store.)
　　Demand for oil storage is so keen today that some big investors who can't secure storage on land have resorted to leasing supertankers and using them as floating oil tanks. For example, the U.S. oil trading firm Koch Su y &am Trading recently leased the 2-million-barrel-capacity Dubai Titan, a Koch oke erson confirms, the third supertanker Koch has leased this year.
　　It's hard to quantify exactly much lower gas prices might be were it not for the current eculation. In the United States alone, crude oil inventories have increased by 27 million barrels since early July, the equivalent of about 200,000 barrels a day being pulled off the market. Based on the estimates I've seen, a 200,000 barrel-a-day decrease in su ly could raise gasoline prices by anywhere from 20 to 40 cents a gallon.
　　For the average co umer, that's real money. But I bet you a barrel or two that actual oil eculators like Koch never get targeted by Congre the same way the hedge funds and index funds did this past summer.
　　After all, who needs a scapegoat when gas is $1.90 a gallon?
2008-12-03 05:42:08
　　鲍尔森对自由市场的新认识：如何让市场有效。
　　There's an elephant in the room every time Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson ste to a podium to recount the serial emergency actio he and other top officials have taken (and, as revealed Monday, will continue to take) to prop up, bail out, jerry-rig, bolster, stabilize, or otherwise rescue capitalists and property owners.
　　That invisible beast? America's free market.
　　The events of the past six months are forcing Paulson (and everyone else) to do some hard, and agonizing, thinking about the faith we once had in the free market's ability to self-correct without sinking the economy. The end result will be a new and strange footprint on American politics, as a Bush administration that ditched its free-market dogma gives way to an Obama administration that ditches its leftist su orters to save capitalism.
　　Yesterday, Bush's Treasury secretary opened a telling window onto his thinking about that vexing subject - and in the proce revealed just how much the financial crisis is already merging the economic voices of the two major parties. At a Fortune 500 Forum in Washington, Paulson was asked to reflect on le o learned over these past tumultuous months, and to define what co titutes a ropriate government intervention in the markets. "Are there some hard lines that you think about that should not be cro ed?" one executive asked.
　　The former Goldman Sachs (GS
) CEO would have i ued a firm yes just a year ago. He's a lot le sure now. "Some of the things I've been part of have been very, very objectionable decisio ," Paulson averred, "but they haven't been difficult decisio " because the alternative would have been much worse. He added: "I look at some of the things that I have done as being e ential to preserve the free-market system."
　　Then Paulson's a wer took an e ecially interesting turn. "Here's the way I think about regulation and the free market system," he said. "We need to get to a place in this country where no i titution is too big or too interco ected to fail...because regulation alone is never going to solve the problem. There's no regulator that's going to be so good they're going to be able to deal with or ferret out all the problems. So it takes balance between the right regulatory system and market discipline."
　　"Only if we have the freedom to fail," Paulson i isted, "is there really going to be the freedom to succeed."
　　Who does that sound like? One of President-elect Barack Obama's most liberal advisers, former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich, recently wrote this on his blog: "Pardon me for asking, but if a company is too big to fail, maybe - just maybe - it's too big, period."
　　Strange bedfellows
　　This emerging philosophical common ground extends beyond labor-liberal Reich and Wall Street free-marketer Paulson. During the campaign, candidate Obama marched a cautious lock-step behind Paulson, from Bear Stear and AIG (
) to Fa ie Mae (
) and Freddie Mac (
) to the $700 billion plea to Congre for a system-wide bailout. Paulson, meanwhile, is sounding an awful lot like Obama - or is it the other way around? - with his repeated calls for a free market that is in "balance." And Obama is looking a lot like Paulson in his recruitment of Paulson protégé Timothy Geithner as his Treasury Secretary.
　　Paulson's litany of prescriptio to update the nation's regulatory structure for the 21st century, which he repeated yesterday, could have been lifted from Obama's eech last ring at New York's Cooper Union: a Federal Reserve system empowered to monitor for system-wide risk, a federal check on state mortgage regulators, charters for hedge funds, expa ion of regulation to cover complicated i truments like credit default swa , more checks on rating agencies.
　　"We need a full sweep of authority to deal with no ank i titutio ," Paulson said, "so we can have an orderly wind-down without threatening the system." He added that "much more needs to be done in really understanding the global imbalances and the huge flows of capital that help contribute to this."
　　None of which Obama would disagree with. So this begs the question: Has the age-old political argument between state-friendly liberals and free-market co ervatives lost its juice? Is there no room in the center of American politics for free-market purists, just as there's been no room since the 1970s for leftist ideologues who question the free market?
　　That's not a question Paulson is going to entertain right now. He says the focus needs to be on "recovery and repair" and that only when the financial crisis is in the rear-view mirror can we redraw firm lines between an unfettered market and an interventionist government.
　　"It's hard to design the right prescription until you've worked your way through the problem...[and] make sure you understand the full extent of the problem and all the causes," said the Treasury secretary.
　　Then he directly addre ed the elephant in the room. "This is not about the belief in markets. Markets are the only way, and every other system has been discredited. What we have to do now is fight to make this system work the way it needs to work."
2008-12-02 07:19:33
　　Science 26 September 2008:
　　Vol. 321. no. 5897, . 1788 - 1789
　　DOI: 10.1126/science.1164688Prev
| Table of Contents
　　Per ectives
　　ECONOMICS:
　　Can Neural Data Improve Economics?
　　Eric Maskin
　　Researchers are exploring how neurobiology can guide economic experiments and refine economic models.
　　School of Social Science, I titute for Advanced Study, Ei tein Drive, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. E-mail:
　　The editors suggest the following Related Resources on Science sites:
　　In Science Magazine
　　REPORTS
　　Understanding Overbidding: Using the Neural Circuitry of Reward to Design Economic Auctio 　　Mauricio R. Delgado, Andrew Schotter, Erkut Y. Ozbay, and Elizabeth A. Phel (26 September 2008)
　　Science 321 (5897), 1849. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1158860]
　　 | A tract ?
| Full Text ?
| PDF ?
| Su orting Online Material ?
2008-12-02 05:36:35
　　《时代周刊》等分析中国经济特别是失业问题
　　When China's President Hu Jintao
made his first official visit to Washington in April of 2006, he encountered a string of diplomatic afus that culminated in enduring several minutes of screaming from a protester admitted into the media stand. Still, U.S. officials say he and President George W. Bush
developed a genuine personal ra ort. At one point, Bush asked his counterpart which of the numerous challenges China faced was the most serious — which one kept Hu awake at night worrying. "Unemployment," Hu reportedly a wered without hesitating.
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　　These days, Hu must be suffering from serious i omnia. When that meeting in Washington took place, China's economy was still expanding at a double-digit rate, creating enough jo every year that many of the 20 million new job seekers who entered the market found some sort of gainful employment. Now GDP growth has di ed to around 9%
and is expected to decline further as the worldwide financial crisis tra mogrifies into a global rece ion. Already, scores of Chinese factories producing co umer goods like toys and plastics goods have shuttered in the southern industrial powerhouse of Guangdong, and thousands of unemployed workers have made their di leasure known with rowdy demo tratio last month.
　　It's a situation that is only going to get much worse in the next few months, as the number of unemployed balloo . According to estimates by the Dongguan City A ociation of Enterprises with Foreign Investment, 9,000 of the 45,000 factories in the cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Shenzhen — the heart of China's industrial south — are expected to close before the Chinese New Year in late January. That could mean up to 2.7 million workers facing unemployment, the a ociation said. And they called that number "co ervative."
　　Finding jo for millio of unemployed is "the biggest challenge [China's] leadership faces" says David Dollar, head of the World Bank's China office in Beijing. The current crisis has greatly accelerated a proce that was already underway as China's economy has been shedding low-level factory jo to tra ition to manufacturing higher value-added products and jo in the service industry. "In a way, the crisis could work out well for China. It has the potential to help in rebalancing the economy away from production" to the creation of more jo in the service sector, says Dollar. If GDP growth slows further to 8%, the government still can hit its job creation targets, but the eed with which the adjustment ha e will be critical, he says. "We're going to learn just how well the capital and labor markets work in China. The concern is if the adjustment is very quick, it could be difficult."
　　There have already been indicatio of what exactly "difficult" might mean. On October 18, some three thousand laid-off migrant workers demo trated outside the gates of a shuttered toy factory owned by Hong Kong company Smart Union Group (Holdings). The workers were demanding the payment of over $3 million in back wages. With the factory managers a arently having fled to Hong Kong, the Dongguan city government was eventually forced to a ounce that it would guarantee their payment.
　　That day, the protest pa ed peacefully. But the government's overriding concern is that such protests could become violent and even read. China,
by its own admi ion, suffers te of thousands of what the government describes as "ma incidents," or protests involving large numbers of demo trators, and the majority take place in the countryside. Should they begin to occur in the cities, "we would be witne ing the most severe challenge the Communist leadership has faced in many, many years," says Beijing based scholar Ru ell Leigh Moses. "Stability has been taken for granted by outsiders, but cadres are well aware of how dependent their power is on economic growth. This is a going to be a very real test of the government's capacity."
　　A Blue Christmas at China's North Pole
　　By Bill Powell / Dongguan
Friday, Nov. 28, 2008
　　Factory workers smash an office during a protest over a labor di ute at Kaida toy factory in Dongguan, Guangdong province, China, on Nov. 25, 2008
　　DONG NAN / COLOR CHINA PHOTO / SIPA
　　At about six o'clock Thursday evening, around what used to be quitting time for the day shift at the He Jun toy factory in Dongguan, China, 40-year-old Wei Dong Li made his way to the factory's front entrance, his three-year-old son Qian Jie tugging at his sleeve. The factory is now closed; a few security guards stand i ide the locked gate. Posted each evening at the front entrance is a sheaf of documents: the latest rulings from a local court on compe ation claims
filed by many of He Jun's 4,000 workers, Wei included. "They proce a few of them a day, so I come back every other day to check and see if my case is on the list," Wei says. He has no luck again. "I'll just wait some more," he says. "I have nothing else to do at this point."
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　　Dongguan, along with a handful of similar, nearby tow , is the real Santa's factory at the North Pole. A rawling, charmle city of 7.5 million that sits 80 km southeast of Guangzhou, the provincial capital of Guangdong in southern China, Dongguan produces a vast amount of the toys that will end up under Christmas trees around the world. Toys were one of the critical, low-wage, low-tech industries on which China built its economic ascent over the past 30 years. But as workers such as Wei know better than anyone, 2008 is the year that that part of China's miracle has come to an end
　　It's been six weeks since He Jun, a Hong Kong-listed company, shuttered two of its biggest factories in China — suddenly and without any warning, former workers say. They were among the latest and largest factory closures in China's battered low-end industries: toy manufacturers, textile companies and shoe makers most prominent among them. China's steadily a reciating renmi i currency — which makes Chinese goods more expe ive in key exports markets like the U.S. — as well as higher costs embedded in a new labor law enacted last year were already wreaking havoc with companies that survived even in the best of times on the thi est of profit margi . Now, with a global rece ion gathering pace, the best of times are gone, and the pain in what had been booming areas in southern China is reading quickly. Fully half of China's toy exporters, which sent nearly $8 billion worth of Barbies and Thomas the Tank Engines to export markets in 2007, were driven out of busine in the first seven months of this year, Beijing's General Administration of Customs said in a recent report. In the city of Shenzhen, the other major manufacturing center in Guangdong province, 50,000 people have already lost their jo this year. And in Beijing last week, Zhang Ping, chairman of the National Development and Reform. Commi ion, the nation's key economic policy-making body, bluntly warned that "exce ive production cuts and busine closures will cause ma ive unemployment and that will lead to i tability."
　　In Dongguan, it already has. Earlier last week, on the evening of November 25, another large toy manufacturer here, Kai Da Manufacturing, laid off more than 600 of its workers because of slowing production. According to participants and eyewitne es to what followed, a large group of the workers gathered in the front courtyard of the factory demanding to know what compe ation they would receive. At first, a company manager told them that anyone with a good work record and le than five years service would receive le than 10,000 RMB—le than $1,500 at today's exchange rates. Anyone with over seven years on the line and a good record would get 12,300 RMB or about $1,800.
　　Those gathered were furious at what one worker, who gave his name as Mr. Shao (he declined to provide his full name), described as "the pittance they are offering us." They refused to leave the plant, and according to eyewitne es, security guards started to get aggre ive, pushing and shoving them to leave. At that point, Shao says, "things got out of control." Workers fought back agai t the security guards, who quickly called the local police for a istance. Then more workers joined in. Some moved into the factory's office and began breaking windows and computers. When the police showed up, they were immediately on the defe ive. Two squad cars were overturned and trashed, as were five police motorcycles. The police called in reinforcements, and five workers ended up getting beaten badly, an eyewitne said. (Dongguan police declined comment on the riot.) The violence lasted over an hour before police restored order.
　　And order, above all, is what the Chinese government is concerned about. Episodes like the one at Kai Da in Dongguan have become jarringly frequent in southern China in recent months, and the NRDC's Zheng, in his pre conference yesterday in Beijing, made the government's nervou e plain. The central government is pre uring provincial authorities to make sure employers pay severance according to the law, and in cases where they don't, to step in and pay workers themselves. (Several provincial governments, according to Chinese pre reports, have in turn complained that they don't have the needed funds to make exte ive severance payments as the number of unemployed workers mounts.)
　　That's the reason Wei Dong Li of He Jun shows up at the closed factory gate each evening, awaiting the court's ruling on how much he and others should be paid. "The [local] government has told us that this i ue will be resolved by the end of this month, so I should find something out soon from the court [about the severance]." But he acknowledges he doe 't have much faith that the authorities will come through with any a istance, and in the meantime, his money is ru ing out. "I've posted my resume online for a month now, but it's very hard to find a job around here these days. I've had no re o es."
　　Soon, he acknowledged, he may have to join the exodus out of Guangdong province of migrant workers, now joble , headed back to their hometow in le pro erous parts of the country. This exodus — the reversal of more than two decades of migration from poor rural areas to faster-growing, coastal cities — is most visible at the Guangzhou train station, where hundreds of migrants, all bearing suitcases and sho ing bags crammed with all their worldly belongings, now sit outside for hours waiting to board their trai home. On the evening of Nov. 26, Zhang De Jun, 35, was one of them. For 10 years, he said, he worked in a sweater factory not far from Dongguan. His wife, seated next to him, worked in a toy factory, but had lost her job, too. Like millio of other migrants, Zhang said each month he'd send part of his salary of 2,000 RMB home to his extended family, who live outside Chongqing in Sichuan province. Asked what he will do when he gets back, Zhang took a drag on his cigarette and muttered: "I'll do what I used to do. I'll work in the fields."
　　Since its reforms started 30 years ago, China ha 't been able to keep peasants down on the farm anymore — and that was a resounding sign of succe . Now, as Christmas a roaches, China's North Pole is shutting down, and millio may have to stream back to the farms. For the leaders in Beijing and in the provinces, that's not succe . That's trouble.
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2008-12-02 05:20:42
　　道琼斯猛跌680点，实在爽！美国经济处于微调之中，没有大问题。欧元更加疲软。油价下落。
　　Dow plunges 680 points
　　Stocks slump on economic woes as U.S. rece ion is officially called.
　　AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS
　　Feds to expand financial rescue
　　Bernanke: Economic weakne to continue
　　It's official: Rece ion since Dec. '07
　　Dow plunges 600 points
　　AIG sells its Private Bank
　　Feels like the '80s
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　　Black Friday blitz
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　　NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Monday afternoon, with fears about the economy driving a selloff as manufacturing slumped to a 26-year low and the U.S. economy was officially declared to be a rece ion.
　　The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU
) lost over 600 points - or 6.9% - with 10 minutes left in the se ion. The Standard &am Poor's 500 (SPX
) index fell 8% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP
) gave up around 7.5%.
　　Stocks sold off from the opening bell and continued sliding as the se ion wore on. The economic news and the official declaration of the rece ion added to the selling, but the market was already primed for a selloff after last week's run, analysts said.
　　After hitting multi-year lows a little over a week ago, the S&am P 500 rallied 19% through last Friday, while the Dow and Nasdaq both gained just under 17%.
　　"We're going to continue to see this extreme volatility because there's no clear end in sight to all the crises," said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group.
　　In a report released Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed what many have long believed - that the nation is in a rece ion
. According to the NBER, the official body that calls economic cycles, the U.S. has been in a rece ion since December 2007.
　　Speaking in the afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the economic weakne will continue
for some time, de ite the impact of the government's efforts to get money flowing again.
　　Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, eaking at a Fortune 500 forum in the afternoon, said the federal government is looking to expand
the financial rescue program.
　　Last week's gai followed the a ouncement of President-elect Obama's economic team and Citigroup's bailout. Positive reports on Black Friday also helped stocks at the end of last week. But market experts expect the critical holiday-sho ing period to be tepid.
　　Economy: The I titute for Su ly Management said its November manufacturing index fell
to a 26-year low of 36.2 from 38.9 in October. That was worse than what economists were expecting, according to a survey from Briefing.com.
　　October co truction ending fell 1.2% versus a flat reading in the previous month. Economists thought ending would drop 1%.
　　Global economic news was pretty grim as well, with manufacturing surveys in Britain and the euro zone showing a steep slowdown. A reading on China's manufacturing survey was equally worrisome.
　　Asian markets
ended in mixed territory and European markets ended lower.
　　Retail sales: Sho ers came out in droves over the weekend, motivated by pent-up demand and deep discounts, but the surge is not expected to last.
　　Including "Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, sho ers ent $41 billion in the four-day holiday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an industry trade group. The average sho er ent $372.57, up 7.2% from a year ago.
　　However, overall 2008 holiday ending is expected to rise just 2.2%
from a year ago, the smallest gain in six years.
　　Thursday's November retail sales reports from the nation's chain stores will be critical, as they include the four-day holiday weekend, said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.
　　"If they don't report a lift up in same-store sales, even with Black Friday included, that's going to be a big negative for the (stock) market," Rovelli said.
　　Same-store sales is an industry metric that refers to sales at stores open a year or more.
　　Early reports
suggest "Cyber Monday" online sho ing sales are on track to be flat or slightly higher versus a year ago.
　　Co umer ending drives two-thirds of economic growth, and the pullback has exacerbated the economic slowdown.
　　Obama: The president-elect a ounced his national security team. As expected, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., was nominated Secretary of State and current Defe e Secretary Robert Gates was asked to stay on. Retired Marine Gen. James Jones was nominated as national security adviser, Eric Holder was picked for Attorney General and Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano was the choice for Secretary of Homeland Security. (Full story
　　Automakers: GM (GM
, Fortune 500
) and Ford (F
, Fortune 500
) gained last week on growing bets that they, along with Chrysler, will receive a government bailout. But the stocks tumbled Monday in tune with the broader market.
　　The auto industry's first pitch to Congre was rebuffed, but there is increased eculation that its second pitch will be more succe ful.
　　The companies have until Tuesday to submit proposals for how they would use $25 billion in taxpayer money to make their companies "viable." The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to host a hearing Thursday, while the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing Friday.
　　Other movers: Joh on &am Joh on (JNJ
, Fortune 500
) said it will buy
breast implant maker Mentor (MNT
) for $1.07 billion, or $31 a share, nearly double the company's closing price from Friday. Dow stock J&am J fell 3%, while Mentor gained 89%.
　　Stock declines were broa